Watching Soleimani’s Death from Israel
On Friday morning, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to cut short a visit to Greece and return to Israel on Friday in order “to monitor the situation” in the aftermath of Qassim Soleimani’s Death. In his statement just before taking off, Netanyahu said, “Just as Israel has the right of self-defense, the U.S. has exactly the same right. Soleimani is responsible for the death of American citizens and many other innocent people. He was planning more such attacks.”
This seemingly logical decision caused unexpected chaos: the religious members of the delegation and the press, who were planning on spending the weekend in Athens, were scrambling to get to Israel before the Sabbath started Friday at sundown. The task of herding the delegation back on the plane fell on Tzachi Braverman, the Cabinet Secretariat, who stood at the side of the plane rushing the airport workers to load the plane.
However, this last-minute chaos might’ve been avoided if members of the delegation paid attention to Netanyahu’s statement Thursday morning before he left for Greece: "Our region is teeming with dramatic events. We are watching closely and are in constant contact with our great friend the United States, including my conversation with Trump yesterday. We fully support any step taken by the U.S. "
Even though it is still unclear how much Netanyahu and the Israeli defense apparatus knew the details before the strike on Soleimani in Baghdad, what’s definite is that for Israelis, it was less a matter of if but when.
As the Sabbath falls, Israel braces for possible Iranian retaliation. Israeli officials say Iran could retaliate against Israel as part of any larger movement against the U.S. by using their proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
So far, the fallout in Israel so far has been minimal: Israeli defense minister Naftali Bennett rushed to convene an emergency meeting at the IDF's headquarters in Tel, which seemed like more like a photo-op than a serious defense meeting. The Israeli army also announced it was closing Mount Hermon, the only ski resort in Israel located in the northern Golan Heights. The site on the border with Syria is a potential target for rocket fire by pro-Iranian militias in Syria.
The seemingly measured responses by even the most hawkish commentators and politicians are a testament to the fact that even though Soleimani’s death is surprising, it doesn’t change the big picture in the Israel-Iran conflict. Israelis aren’t afraid of an imminent war with Iran because that is what they have been planning for all along.
Just last Wednesday, In a public event at the IDC Interdisciplinary Center in Herzilya, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi warned that “There is a possibility that we will face a limited confrontation with Iran and we are preparing for it.”
Like his predecessors, Kochavi reiterated that none of Israel's enemies want war with it: Israel is simply too powerful. But he sounded almost deterministic in the assessment that military friction between Israel and Iran was unavoidable, and, under extreme circumstances, may even deteriorate into war.
This potential clash is a result of a process that began under Israel’s previous General Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot is known for changing Israel’s strategy of dealing with Iran: confront it head-on, in every area it sees has the potential to pose a strategic threat against it, and most importantly, take credit for it.
In an interview to the New York Times, January 2019 titled, “The Man Who Humbled Qassim Soleimani,” Eisenkot said, “We struck thousands of targets without claiming responsibility or asking for credit.” For the past few years, Israeli officials have stepped out of the shadows and publicly acknowledged Israel’s actions against Iran Syria, Iraq, and beyond. Lately, Israeli politicians and generals have flaunted Israel’s daring escapades, including The Mossad’s heist of the nuclear archives in broad daylight, the Israeli bombing of the Kibar nuclear site, and its air force’s operations deep in Iraqi soil.
These actions are done to curb Iran’s influence around Israel’s borders. “As we push them in Syria,” Eisenkot said, “they will transfer their efforts to Iraq,” where the U.S. still has thousands of troops.” A year later, Eisenkot’s predictions ring true.
The significance of this strategy change is that by speaking publicly about Iran’s threat and an escalation in the conflict, they have been readying the Israeli public for the potential clash. This is one of the lessons Israeli leadership learned from the 2006 Lebanon War, a conflict which took Israelis by surprise, paralyzed the north of Israel, and cause a crisis in army morale.
If a clash with Iran is unavoidable at some point, then Israeli society needs to be prepared. In his speech, Kochavi warned that Israelis need to know that IDF causalities will be higher than usual and Israel population centers in the north will be evacuated. This candor isn’t only meant for warning the public, but an aggressive nudge to those who control the purse strings of Israel’s budget. Conflict with Iran is costly: not only in infrastructure damage and human lives but also in Shekels and Dollars.
With so many of the details already known, this event can become a political tool Israeli politicians can use to win a few more votes in the upcoming elections. Politically, Soleimani’s death comes at an opportune moment for Netanyahu. After being criticized by the left and right of being obsessed with Iran, he can point his finger toward Baghdad. And, with the elections three months away, Netanyahu, who’s charged with three counts of bribery and fraud, can take this occasion to call for a unity coalition in face of this crisis.
That said, three months in the Middle East in a long time and with the Israeli public mostly checked out of the political process, the impact of this event is still to be determined. But ironically, in this well-thought-out strategy that includes the Israeli defense apparatus, the political class, and the civilian population, Israel’s Sunni allies, what has become the big unknown is Israel’s most trusted partner, the U.S.
This may be Netanyahu and Israel’s biggest challenge: In a conflict where both sides know what the other is vying for, it is Trump who has become the unreliable partner. Beyond bracing for potential Iranian retaliation, Israeli security experts will have to brace for another unexpected move by the world’s most capricious leader.